The Economic Development of the Middle East by Alfred Bonne

Author:Alfred Bonne [Bonne, Alfred]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Sociology, General
ISBN: 9781136227783
Google: OlXGTASFMqoC
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2013-07-04T04:11:58+00:00

* Average of 1924–8.

In Syria and the Lebanon the situation in this respect appears somewhat more favourable, because the industrial agility of the population of that country has for decades been calling industrial enterprises into being. As a consequence, local workers there show a more favourable disposition towards intensified industrialization than those in Egypt and in the certainly far less developed Iraq and Transjordan. But in view of the very limited scope of these enterprises in the Syrian States, no definite prognosis can be offered as to the capacity of local production for competition with foreign produce, if and when the former assumes larger dimensions.

Turkey is characterized by a clear-cut policy of developing local industry at the expense of imports on a scale scarcely known elsewhere. Being the principal director of production and industry, the state has no immediate problems of foreign competition to fear.

(c) THE AVAILABILITY OF WORKERS AND TECHNICAL STAFF

The general tendency towards increase of population, coupled with the shifting of workers from rural to urban occupations, will doubtless go far to satisfy the rising demand for industrial labour. According to our estimate included in the table on page 88, very substantial additions to the number of industrial earners are to be expected as a result of these trends, although the percentages themselves will show only moderate rises. Take Egypt again as example. Instead of 588,000 industrial earners in 1934–5 there would be 1,053,000 in 1962. A considerable proportion of this increase will be engaged in the production of industrial goods for the peasant population as well as for rural housing, as may be seen from the following estimate:

Let it be assumed that, according to the estimates on page 78, an additional amount of £80·6 million will be spent directly on manufactured goods in 1962, a demand will then arise for 269,000 new industrial workers, on the basis of £300 as the average value of gross output per worker. A further demand for secondary produce can, moreover, be expected to result from the building industry. According to our tables on pp. 76–7 (first line) the potential investment in housing, rural and urban, amounts to approximately £10·9 million per annum, after deducting the share of industrial goods in this total, which has been estimated by us at £5·24 million. The cost of paid labour in building has not been computed here, but may be estimated at 30 per cent. of total costs (excluding industrial goods used in construction), i.e. at £3·3 million. This amount may, on a conservative estimate, provide work for 55,000 people on an annual wages basis of £60 per earner. Altogether we shall thus have 324,000 earners in secondary occupations, building included, so that only 141,000 earners would be available to cater for the higher needs of the urban population in “secondary” products. These figures, however, provide for a reserve, as the rising degree of efficiency in industry is bound to decrease the number of workers required to produce the same unit of goods. Another reserve

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